The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird.

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

Coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks prevent bias about infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus transmission for Snake River Basin salmonids.

Much remains unknown about variation in pathogen transmission across the geographic range of a free-ranging fish or animal species and about the influence of movement (associated with husbandry practices or animal behavior) on pathogen transmission. Salmonid hatcheries are an ideal system in which to study these processes. Salmonid hatcheries are managed for endangered species recovery, supplementation of threatened or at-risk fish stocks, support of fisheries, and ecosystem stability. Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is a rhabdovirus of significant concern to salmon aquaculture. Landscape IHNV transmission dynamics previously had been estimated only for salmonid hatcheries in the Lower Columbia River Basin (LCRB). The objectives of this study were to estimate IHNV transmission dynamics in a unique geographic region, the Snake River Basin (SRB), and to quantitatively estimate the effect of model coproduction on inference because previous assessments of coproduction have been qualitative. In contrast to the LCRB, the SRB has hatchery complexes consisting of a main hatchery and ≥1 satellite facility. Knowledge about hatchery complexes was held by a subset of project researchers but would not have been available to project modelers without coproduction. Project modelers generated and tested multiple versions of Bayesian susceptible-exposedinfected models to realistically represent the SRB and estimate the effect of coproduction. Models estimated the frequency of transmission routes, route-specific infection probabilities, and infection probabilities for combinations of salmonid hosts and IHNV lineages. Model results indicated that in the SRB, avoiding exposure to IHNV-positive adult salmonids is the most important action to prevent juvenile infections. Migrating adult salmonids exposed juvenile cohort-sites most frequently, and the infection probability was greatest following exposure to migrating adults. Without coproduction, the frequency of exposure by migrating adults would have been overestimated by 70 cohort-sites, and the infection probability following exposure to migrating adults would have been underestimated by∼0.09. The coproduced model had less uncertainty in the infection probability if no transmission route could be identified (Bayesian credible interval (BCI) width = 0.12) compared to the model without coproduction (BCI width = 0.34). Evidence for virus lineage MD specialization on steelhead and rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss) was apparent without model coproduction. In the SRB, we found a greater probability of virus lineage UC infection in Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) compared to in O. mykiss, whereas in the LCRB, UC more clearly exhibited a generalist approach. Coproduction influenced estimates that depended on transmission routes, which operated differently at main hatcheries and satellite sites within hatchery complexes. Hatchery complexes are found outside of the SRB and are not specific to salmonid hatcheries alone. There is great potential for coproduction and modeling spatial contact networks to advance understanding about infectious disease transmission in complex production systems and surrounding free-ranging animal populations.

Changes in Container-Breeding Mosquito Diversity and Abundance Along an Urbanization Gradient are Associated With Dominance of Arboviral Vectors.

Environmental conditions associated with urbanization are likely to influence the composition and abundance of mosquito (Diptera, Culicidae) assemblages through effects on juvenile stages, with important consequences for human disease risk. We present six years (2011-2016) of weekly juvenile mosquito data from distributed standardized ovitraps and evaluate how variation in impervious cover and temperature affect the composition and abundance of container-breeding mosquito species in Maryland, USA. Species richness and evenness were lowest at sites with high impervious cover (>60% in 100-m buffer). However, peak diversity was recorded at sites with intermediate impervious cover (28-35%). Four species were observed at all sites, including two recent invasives (Aedes albopictus Skuse, Ae. japonicus Theobald), an established resident (Culex pipiens L), and one native (Cx. restuans Theobald). All four are viral vectors in zoonotic or human transmission cycles. Temperature was a positive predictor of weekly larval abundance during the growing season for each species, as well as a positive predictor of rapid pupal development. Despite being observed at all sites, each species responded differently to impervious cover. Abundance of Ae. albopictus larvae was positively associated with impervious cover, emphasizing that this medically-important vector not only persists in the warmer, impervious urban landscape but is positively associated with it. Positive temperature effects in our models of larval abundance and pupae occurrence in container habitats suggest that these four vector species are likely to continue to be present and abundant in temperate cities under future temperature scenarios.

Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density.

Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for lake managers. As cyanobacteria can produce toxic and unsightly surface scums, advance warning when cyanobacterial densities are increasing could help managers mitigate water quality issues. Here, we fit 13 Bayesian state-space models to evaluate different hypotheses about cyanobacterial densities in a low nutrient lake that experiences sporadic surface scums of the toxin-producing cyanobacterium, Gloeotrichia echinulata. We used data from several summers of weekly cyanobacteria samples to identify dominant sources of uncertainty for near-term (1- to 4-week) forecasts of G. echinulata densities. Water temperature was an important predictor of cyanobacterial densities during model fitting and at the 4-week forecast horizon. However, no physical covariates improved model performance over a simple model including the previous week's densities in 1-week-ahead forecasts. Even the best fit models exhibited large variance in forecasted cyanobacterial densities and did not capture rare peak occurrences, indicating that significant explanatory variables when fitting models to historical data are not always effective for forecasting. Uncertainty partitioning revealed that model process specification and initial conditions dominated forecast uncertainty. These findings indicate that long-term studies of different cyanobacterial life stages and movement in the water column as well as measurements of drivers relevant to different life stages could improve model process representation of cyanobacteria abundance. In addition, improved observation protocols could better define initial conditions and reduce spatial misalignment of environmental data and cyanobacteria observations. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological forecasting principles and uncertainty partitioning to refine and understand predictive capacity across ecosystems.

Condition-Specific Competitive Effects of the Invasive Mosquito Aedes albopictus on the Resident Culex pipiens among Different Urban Container Habitats May Explain Their Coexistence in the Field.

Condition-specific competition, when environmental conditions alter the outcome of competition, can foster the persistence of resident species after the invasion of a competitively superior invader. We test whether condition-specific competition can facilitate the areawide persistence of the resident and principal West Nile virus vector mosquito Culex pipiens with the competitively superior invasive Aedes albopictus in water from different urban container habitats. (2) Methods: We tested the effects of manipulated numbers of A. albopictus on C. pipiens' survival and development in water collected from common functional and discarded containers in Baltimore, MD, USA. The experiment was conducted with typical numbers of larvae found in field surveys of C. pipiens and A. albopictus and container water quality. (3) Results: We found increased densities of A. albopictus negatively affected the survivorship and development of C. pipiens in water from discarded containers but had little effect in water from functional containers. This finding was driven by water from trash cans, which allowed consistently higher C. pipiens' survival and development and had greater mean ammonia and nitrate concentrations that can promote microbial food than other container types. (4) Conclusions: These results suggest that the contents of different urban containers alter the effects of invasive A. albopictus competition on resident C. pipiens, that trash cans, in particular, facilitate the persistence of C. pipiens, and that there could be implications for West Nile virus risk as a result.

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Survey in Greece before the Implementation of Sterile Insect Technique against Aedes albopictus.

Community involvement in Aedes albopictus management can be very efficient and result in raising awareness among citizens. Toward this end, a door-to-door campaign can encourage active community participation in vector control. The current study describes the results of an intervention where a KAP (knowledge, attitude, practices) survey tool was paired with a door-to-door campaign and was implemented as an intervention method in Vravrona area (Attica, Greece) before the release of sterile males (sterile insect technique, SIT) against Aedes albopictus. The KAP tool was used to shed light on the knowledge, practices, and attitudes of local community members in order to better prepare and motivate participation in household mosquito control and to assess current understanding of SIT. Each household also received specific information about mosquito source habitat in their own yards at the time of the initial KAP survey. These household data were complemented by standardized mosquito trapping in the municipality. Our findings indicate that citizens' attitude toward SIT ranged from indecisive to fully supportive, while 77.5% of the respondents agreed that the SIT has many advantages over chemical control methods. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that using the door-to-door campaign as an intervention and prerelease method before SIT can suppress the initial mosquito population and potentially improve its efficacy. Lastly, we show that the presence of local municipality officials during door-to-door visits was associated with increased willingness from the residents to participate in the intervention.

Rodents harbouring zoonotic pathogens take advantage of abandoned land in post-Katrina New Orleans.

Leptospirosis is a disease that disproportionately affects impoverished urban communities, but is likely to become more prevalent as changing climate alters flooding regimes. The persistence and transmission of the Leptospira pathogen is reliant on small vertebrate animals, predominantly rodents. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Peterson et al. demonstrate how changes in rodent diversity and abundances across the complex mosaic of abandonment and recovery investment in post-Katrina New Orleans can predict zoonotic infection prevalence. Understanding the ecological conditions that support persistence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens in urban ecosystems, where they are most likely to affect humans, is critical to effective monitoring and prevention.

Higher West Nile Virus Infection in Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes From Lower Income Neighborhoods in Urban Baltimore, MD.

The temperate United States has experienced increasing incidence of mosquito-borne diseases. Recent studies conducted in Baltimore, MD have demonstrated a negative relationship between abundances of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) and Culex mosquitoes and mean neighborhood income level, but have not looked at the presence of pathogens. Mosquitoes collected from five socioeconomically variable neighborhoods were tested for infection by West Nile, chikungunya, and Zika viruses in 2015 and 2016, and again from four of the neighborhoods in 2017. Minimum infection rates of pooled samples were compared among neighborhoods for each year, as well as among individual blocks in 2017. West Nile virus was detected in both Ae. albopictus and Culex pools from all neighborhoods sampled in 2015 and 2017. No infected pools were detected in any year for chikungunya or Zika viruses, and none of the target viruses were detected in 2016. Infection rates were consistently higher for Culex than for Ae. albopictus. Minimum infection rate was negatively associated with mean neighborhood income for both species in 2015. Although earlier work has shown a positive association between block-level abandonment and mosquito abundance, no association was detected in this study. Still, we demonstrate that viral infection in mosquito pools can differ substantially across adjacent urban neighborhoods that vary by income. Though trap security and accessibility often inform city sampling locations, detecting and managing arboviral risk requires surveillance across neighborhoods that vary in socioeconomics, including lower income areas that may be less accessible and secure but have higher infection rates.

Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus specialization in a multihost salmonid system.

Many pathogens interact and evolve in communities where more than one host species is present, yet our understanding of host-pathogen specialization is mostly informed by laboratory studies with single species. Managing diseases in the wild, however, requires understanding how host-pathogen specialization affects hosts in diverse communities. Juvenile salmonid mortality in hatcheries caused by infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) has important implications for salmonid conservation programs. Here, we evaluate evidence for IHNV specialization on three salmonid hosts and assess how this influences intra- and interspecific transmission in hatchery-reared salmonids. We expect that while more generalist viral lineages should pose an equal risk of infection across host types, viral specialization will increase intraspecific transmission. We used Bayesian models and data from 24 hatcheries in the Columbia River Basin to reconstruct the exposure history of hatcheries with two IHNV lineages, MD and UC, allowing us to estimate the probability of juvenile infection with these lineages in three salmonid host types. Our results show that lineage MD is specialized on steelhead trout and perhaps rainbow trout (both Oncorhynchus mykiss), whereas lineage UC displayed a generalist phenotype across steelhead trout, rainbow trout, and Chinook salmon. Furthermore, our results suggest the presence of specialist-generalist trade-offs because, while lineage UC had moderate probabilities of infection across host types, lineage MD had a small probability of infection in its nonadapted host type, Chinook salmon. Thus, in addition to quantifying probabilities of infection of socially and economically important salmonid hosts with different IHNV lineages, our results provide insights into the trade-offs that viral lineages incur in multihost communities. Our results suggest that knowledge of the specialist/generalist strategies of circulating viral lineages could be useful in salmonid conservation programs to control disease.

The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics.

Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.

Theoretical Perspectives of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study: Conceptual Evolution in a Social-Ecological Research Project.

The Earth's population will become more than 80% urban during this century. This threshold is often regarded as sufficient justification for pursuing urban ecology. However, pursuit has primarily focused on building empirical richness, and urban ecology theory is rarely discussed. The Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES) has been grounded in theory since its inception and its two decades of data collection have stimulated progress toward comprehensive urban theory. Emerging urban ecology theory integrates biology, physical sciences, social sciences, and urban design, probes interdisciplinary frontiers while being founded on textbook disciplinary theories, and accommodates surprising empirical results. Theoretical growth in urban ecology has relied on refined frameworks, increased disciplinary scope, and longevity of interdisciplinary interactions. We describe the theories used by BES initially, and trace ongoing theoretical development that increasingly reflects the hybrid biological-physical-social nature of the Baltimore ecosystem. The specific mix of theories used in Baltimore likely will require modification when applied to other urban areas, but the developmental process, and the key results, will continue to benefit other urban social-ecological research projects.

Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities.

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)-changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers-are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Aedes albopictus Body Size Differs Across Neighborhoods With Varying Infrastructural Abandonment.

Mosquitoes pose an increasing risk in urban landscapes, where spatial heterogeneity in juvenile habitat can influence fine-scale differences in mosquito density and biting activity. We examine how differences in juvenile mosquito habitat along a spectrum of urban infrastructure abandonment can influence the adult body size of the invasive tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae). Adult Ae. albopictus were collected across 3 yr (2015-2017) from residential blocks in Baltimore, MD, that varied in abandonment level, defined by the proportion of houses with boarded-up doors. We show that female Ae. albopictus collected from sites with higher abandonment were significantly larger than those collected from higher income, low abandonment blocks. Heterogeneity in mosquito body size, including wing length, has been shown to reflect differences in important traits, including longevity and vector competence. The present work demonstrates that heterogeneity in female size may reflect juvenile habitat variability across the spatial scales most relevant to adult Aedes dispersal and human exposure risk in urban landscapes. Previous work has shown that failure to manage abandonment and waste issues in impoverished neighborhoods supports greater mosquito production, and this study suggests that mosquitoes in these same neighborhoods could live longer, produce more eggs, and have different vector potential.

Effects of Detritus on the Mosquito Culex pipiens: Phragmites and Schedonorus (Festuca) Invasion Affect Population Performance.

Species interactions that influence the performance of the exotic mosquito Culex pipiens can have important effects on the transmission risk of West Nile virus (WNV). Invasive plants that alter the vegetation communities of ephemeral ground pools may facilitate or resist the spread of C. pipiens (L.) by altering allochthonous inputs of detritus in those pools. To test this hypothesis, we combined field surveys of roadside stormwater ditches with a laboratory microcosm experiment to examine relationships between C. pipiens performance and water quality in systems containing detritus from invasive Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. Ex Steud., introduced Schedonorusarundinaceus (Schreb.) Dumort., or native Juncus effusus L. or Typha latifolia L. In ditches, C. pipiens abundance was unrelated to detritus species but female C. pipiens were significantly larger from ditches with S. arundinaceus and smaller with J. effusus. Larger and smaller C. pipiens were also produced in microcosms provisioned with S. arundinaceus and J. effusus, respectively, yet the per capita rate of population of change did not vary. Larger females from habitats with S. arundinaceus were likely caused by faster decay rates of S. arundinaceus and resultant increases in microbial food, but lower survival as a result of fouling and higher tannin-lignin concentrations resulted in little changes to overall population performance. Larger female mosquitoes have been shown to have greater potential for transmitting arboviruses. Our findings suggest that changed community-level interactions from plant invasions in urban ephemeral ground pools can affect the fitness of C. pipiens and possibly increase WNV risk.

Assessing Effectiveness of Recommended Residential Yard Management Measures Against Ticks.

Public health authorities recommend a range of nonchemical measures to control blacklegged ticks Ixodes scapularis Say, 1821 (Ixodida: Ixodidae) in residential yards. Here we enumerate these recommendations and assess their relationship to larval tick abundance in 143 yards in Dutchess County, New York, an area with high Lyme disease incidence. We examined the relationship between larval tick abundance and eight property features related to recommendations from public health agencies: presence or absence of outdoor cats, wood piles, trash, stone walls, wood chip barriers separating lawn from adjacent forest, bird feeders, fencing, and prevalence of Japanese barberry (Berberis thunbergii DC [Ranunculales: Berberidaceae]). We assessed abundance of larval ticks using two methods, flagging for questing ticks and visual examination of ticks on white-footed mice Peromyscus leucopus Rafinesque, 1818 (Rodentia: Cricetidae). More questing larvae were found in yards where trash or stone walls were present. These effects were less pronounced as forest area increased within the yard. Counts of larvae per mouse were lower in properties with >75% of the yard fenced than in properties with less fencing. We find partial support for recommendations regarding trash, stone walls, and fencing. We did not detect effects of outdoor cats, bird feeders, barriers, wood piles, or Japanese barberry. There was low statistical power to detect effects of ground barriers (gravel, mulch, or woodchip), which were present in only two properties.

Relationships Among Immature-Stage Metrics and Adult Abundances of Mosquito Populations in Baltimore, MD.

Reducing water-holding containers that provide habitat for immature-stage (eggs, larvae, pupae) mosquitoes is often an effective means of managing urban mosquito-borne diseases. It is generally accepted that adult mosquito abundances are strongly influenced by the availability of container habitat. Yet few studies have directly examined if adult abundances are associated with the presence and abundance of immature stages among city blocks, which is the spatial scale at which common urban mosquitoes disperse and management is often conducted. In this study, we compared larval and pupal population metrics to adult female abundances of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Culex pipiens/restuans (Diptera: Culicidae) across 12 blocks in four socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods in Baltimore, MD. Aedes albopictus and Cx. pipiens/restuans were the most abundant taxa, constituting 81.8 and 95.8% of collected adult and immature-stage individuals, respectively. Despite being collected on all blocks in all neighborhoods, adult female Ae. albopictus but not Cx. pipiens/restuans were predicted by immature-stage population metrics. Adult female Ae. albopictus abundance was positively and consistently predicted by the mean number of occupied discarded containers per parcel across the four socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods. Our results suggest that immature-stage monitoring in landscapes dominated by container habitat may not be an effective predictor of adult Cx. pipiens/restuans abundance, but removing discarded container habitat should be a priority action to manage Ae. albopictus, which is usually the most pestiferous species in temperate cities in the eastern United States and many regions worldwide.

Reducing Aedes albopictus breeding sites through education: A study in urban area.

Aedes albopictus tends to proliferate in small, often man-made bodies of water, largely present in urban private areas. For this reason, education and community participation are considered crucial for source reduction and mosquito control. In the current study, we identify mosquito breeding habitat and evaluate the effectiveness of resident education. Since 2010 several outbreaks of West Nile virus infection occurred in Greece however urban population has no previous experience with mosquito-borne disease related to Aedes species, such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. After the introduction of Ae. albopictus in Greece, urban areas have been considered to be at risk of epidemic arboviral outbreaks and identifying effective control strategies is imperative. Our study examines the relationship between mosquito breeding sources and socioeconomic or demographic characteristics of different households in a Greek municipality and evaluates efficacy of resident education. The results revealed that only a minority of residents knew where mosquitoes breed (18.6%) and only 46% felt that residents had any responsibility for managing breeding habitat. Our findings strongly suggest that only the presence of scientific staff inspecting possible habitats in their properties, could be enough to stimulate practices towards source reduction. However, educational interventions alone with printed education material cannot enhance significant community participation and source reduction.

Primary blood-hosts of mosquitoes are influenced by social and ecological conditions in a complex urban landscape.

BACKGROUND: Temperate urban landscapes support persistent and growing populations of Culex and Aedes mosquito vectors. Large urban mosquito populations can represent a significant risk for transmission of emergent arboviral infection. However, even large mosquito populations are only a risk to the animals they bite. The purpose of this study is to identify and assess spatial patterns of host-use in a temperate urban landscape with heterogeneous socio-economic and ecological conditions. RESULTS: Mosquito blood meals were collected from neighborhoods categorized along a socio-economic gradient in Baltimore, MD, USA. Blood meal hosts were identified for two Aedes (Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus) and three Culex (Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans and Cx. salinarius) species. The brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) was the most frequently detected host in both Aedes species and Cx. salinarius. Human biting was evident in Aedes and Culex species and the proportion of human blood meals from Ae. albopictus varied significantly with neighborhood socio-economic status. Aedes albopictus was most likely to feed on human blood hosts (at 50%) in residential blocks categorized as having income above the city median, although there were still more total human bites detected from lower income blocks where Ae. albopictus was more abundant. Birds were the most frequently detected Culex blood hosts but were absent from all Aedes sampled. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights fine-scale variation in host-use by medically important mosquito vectors and specifically investigates blood meal composition at spatial scales relevant to urban mosquito dispersal and human exposure. Further, the work emphasizes the importance of neighborhood economics and infrastructure management in shaping both the relative abundance of vectors and local blood feeding strategies. The invasive brown rat was an important blood source across vector species and neighborhoods in Baltimore. We show that social and economic conditions can be important predictors of transmission potential in urban landscapes and identify important questions about the role of rodents in supporting urban mosquito populations.

Effects of tire leachate on the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus and the native congener Aedes triseriatus.

Discarded vehicle tire casings are an important artificial habitat for the developmental stages of numerous vector mosquitoes. Discarded vehicle tires degrade under ultraviolet light and leach numerous soluble metals (e.g., barium, cadmium, zinc) and organic substances (e.g., benzothiazole and its derivatives [BZTs], polyaromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs]) that could affect mosquito larvae that inhabit the tire casing. This study examined the relationship between soluble zinc, a common marker of tire leachate, on mosquito densities in tire habitats in the field, and tested the effects of tire leachate on the survival and development of newly hatched Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus larvae in a controlled laboratory dose-response experiment. In the field, zinc concentrations were as high as 7.26 mg/L in a single tire and averaged as high as 2.39 (SE ± 1.17) mg/L among tires at a single site. Aedes albopictus (37/42 tires, 81.1%) and A. triseriatus (23/42, 54.8%) were the most widespread mosquito species, co-occurred in over half (22/42, 52.4%) of all tires, and A. triseriatus was only collected without A. albopictus in one tire. Aedes triseriatus was more strongly negatively associated with zinc concentration than A. albopictus, and another common mosquito, C. pipiens, which was found in 17 tires. In the laboratory experiment, A. albopictus per capita rate of population change (λ') was over 1.0, indicating positive population growth, from 0-8.9 mg/L zinc concentration (0-10,000 mg/L tire leachate), but steeply declined to zero from 44.50-89.00 mg/L zinc (50,000-100,000 mg/L tire leachate). In contrast, A. triseriatus λ' declined at the lower concentration of 0.05 mg/L zinc (100 mg/L tire leachate), and was zero at 0.45, 8.90, 44.50, and 89.00 mg/L zinc (500, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 mg/L tire leachate). These results indicate that tire leachate can have severe negative effects on populations of container-utilizing mosquitoes at concentrations commonly found in the field. Superior tolerance to tire leachate of A. albopictus compared to A. triseriatus, and possibly other native mosquito species, may have facilitated the replacement of these native species as A. albopictus has invaded North America and other regions around the world.

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.